In the second installment of the AEM Industry Advisor Series on the 2024 elections, let’s take a look at the U.S. House of Representatives.
At the time this was written, there are still eight races yet to be called, but the Republicans have maintained control of a razor thin majority with the House standing at 218 Republicans and 209 Democrats. While the math currently stands in the House Republicans’ favor, President Trump’s named cabinet appointees might put this in jeopardy. Members of the House do not have to resign to go through the confirmation process until they are officially confirmed by the Senate, but calling and carrying out special elections takes time, and this could slow down any legislative progress that Republican leadership would hope to make during the first 100 days.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson of Louisiana is set to continue to hold the speakership, but nothing is set in stone until the formal vote is held in January. House Republican Leadership includes Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who were each reappointed to their respective roles unanimously. Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) edged out Rep. Kat Cammack (R-Fla.) in the race to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as Republican Conference Chair.
Many friends of AEM clinched out wins to hold their seats or are projected to. The race for Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa’s first district, is one yet to be called, but she is projected to win by just 800 votes. Other friends that have won close races include Rep. David Valado of California’s 22nd district, Rep. Zach Nunn of Iowa’s 3rd district, and Don Bacon of Nebraska’s 2nd district.
Chairmanship of the House Agriculture Committee is expected to stay the same. Rep. GT Thompson will continue to hold the gavel, but there is a question as to whether the Ranking Member, Rep. David Scott, will continue to hold his leadership position or if it will be handed off to another member of the committee who is in better health. If Rep. Scott does turn over his leadership position, Rep. Jim Costa of California is the next in line on the Committee.
Chairmanship of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee (T&I) is still up in the air as the current committee Chair, Rep. Sam Graves of Missouri, will need to seek a waiver to adhere to the Republican Conference rules that limit a committee Chair from serving for no more than six years. If Chairman Graves is not granted a waiver, current Highways and Transit Subcommittee Chairman, Rep. Rick Crawford of Arkansas, will most likely pick up the gavel. On the other side of the dais, Ranking Member Rick Larsen of Washington will continue his spot as the top democrat on T&I. Beyond leadership, the T&I committee is currently made up of 66 members. Of those 66, many have either retired, sought a new committee, or lost--resulting in half of the committee open to new Members of Congress. The T&I committee is a great committee for many so-called “freshmen” to cut their teeth in Congress and experience how a relatively non-controversial committee works.
That said, with many new faces on the committee and the daunting task of drafting the surface transportation reauthorization bill that expires in 2026, the T&I committee will be a very sought after committee for new and returning members.
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